Thinking Critically about Climate Change and National Security
(http://www.lccss.org/PentagonPaperAnalysis.html)

Recently, my friend, Rich, approached me with a problem.� Rich�s neighbor, a retired physicist, argued that �man isn't responsible for the major CO2 increase and that this global warming is a bunch of baloney.�� Rich asked for a comprehensive reference for anthropogenic climate change and I gave him the web link to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. (http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/un/syreng/spm.pdf) � I recommended that Rich ask his neighbor in turn for a reference to defend his position.� I suggested that a good scientist would have data and references readily available to support strongly held convictions.�

When I discuss important issues with people, I am continually surprised by two things.� One is rarely do people ask for my references and the second is when I ask for their�s, invariably they don�t have any, or cannot recall where they heard (rarely read) something.� Are folks embarrassed to say they get their information from Rush Limbaugh or Jon Stewart?

Another good publicly available reference is a recent publication titled �National Security and the Threat of Climate Change.�

One of the consultants, General Richard Sullivan (ret.) said, �Climate change is inevitable. If we keep on with business as usual, we will reach a point where some of the worst effects are inevitable.� If we don�t act, this looks more like a high probability/high consequence scenario.�

The report is a wealth of references in its own right and has drawn �information from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), peer-reviewed scientific literature, and data, reports, and briefings from various respected sources, including the National Academy of Sciences, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Air and Space Administration, and the United Kingdom�s Hadley Centre for Climate Change.��

Former Astronaut and NASA Administrator, Vice-Admiral Richard Truly (ret.) describes climate change as one of the first issues he was asked to consider. �I was a total agnostic,� Truly said. �I had spent most of my life in the space and aeronautics world, and hadn�t really wrestled with this. I was open-minded.� Over the course of the next few years, I started really paying attention to the data. When I looked at what energy we had used over the past couple of centuries and what was in the atmosphere today, I knew there had to be a connection. I wasn�t convinced by a person or any interest group�it was the data that got me. As I looked at it on my own, I couldn�t come to any other conclusion. Once I got past that point, I was utterly convinced of this connection between the burning of fossil fuels and climate change. And I was convinced that if we didn�t do something about this, we would be in deep trouble.�

Admiral Truly�s lesson is important.� If a person has the ability to think critically, that person will look at the data, and will become convinced of the serious dangers of anthropogenic global warming.� If a person looks at the data, that person will know the facts and the salient references well.�

I downloaded the annual carbon emissions data from the Earth Policy Institute into an excel spread sheet.� Their sources are the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, British Petroleum and the Energy Information Agency.� Currently, we are emitting about 8 Gtons of carbon as CO2 each year.� Integrating the numbers, I found that humans have emitted 487 Gtons of carbon through 2006.� The Earth�s atmosphere contained about 550 Gtons of carbon in the form of CO2 before we started burning fossil fuels and contains 750 Gtons today.� The oceans have been absorbing the rest and of course that is why corals are bleaching from increased ocean acidity.� No scientist denies these facts.� Global warming is real.� It is caused by human activities and as the DoD report describes in some detail, the results are alarming and catastrophic. It concludes �[t]here is no known natural forcing that can account for the severity of the recent warming. For example, while claims are made that variation in the intensity of the sun is responsible, the variation in solar radiation�s effect on the climate is estimated to be less than 5 percent as strong as that of human-induced greenhouse gases.�

Tony Noerpel

Founder Loudoun County Committee for a Sustainable Society